Sri Lanka Economic Forecast

Sri Lanka Economic Outlook

November 14, 2017

Upbeat industrial data from Q3 and the continued recovery of the agricultural sector, which suffered widespread destruction and held back growth in H1, suggest that GDP growth ticked up in Q3. Healthy monthly PMI readings through September, along with improved industrial output in Q3, point to a likely acceleration of the domestic economy. Year-to-date growth in exports continued trending upwards through August on the related upturn in agricultural shipments. That said, despite the improvement, the trade deficit widened as imported fuel costs rose. Tourist arrivals grew only moderately in August and workers’ remittances from abroad declined from a year earlier as geopolitical uncertainty further swept the Middle East.

Sri Lanka Economic Growth

A full recovery of the agricultural sector is expected to deliver more broad-based growth next year, and should boost key export commodities. The booming construction and tourism sectors are also expected to support next year’s expansion. Our panelists expect GDP will grow 4.7% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.9% in 2019.

Sri Lanka Economy Data

Population (million)20.720.821.021.121.3
GDP per capita (USD)3,3133,5673,7853,8133,811
GDP (USD bn)68.474.379.380.581.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)21.7-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.5-
Unemployment Rate4.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.6-5.4-5.7-7.6-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.770.871.377.677.2
Money (annual variation in %)18.318.013.118.9-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.508.508.007.508.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)164.0171.6173.5151.0161.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)127.6129.1130.6136.1146.2
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.7-3.4-2.5-2.3-2.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.9-2.5-2.0-1.9-1.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-9.4-7.6-8.3-8.4-9.1
Exports (USD billion)9.810.411.110.610.3
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)-
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.4-6.27.9-2.52.5
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)54.253.754.255.7-  

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Sri Lanka Facts

Exchange Rate153.30.02 %Dec 06

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