Sri Lanka Economic Forecast

Sri Lanka Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

The economy appears to have lost some steam in Q2 2018 after expanding healthily in the preceding quarter. The trade deficit widened on surging imports growth in April while industrial production expanded in May after declining in April. The currency has weakened since late April, reaching an all-time low on 20 June. Although it stabilized at the beginning of Q3, it remains under pressure due to monetary policy normalization in major economies and higher prices for energy imports, which could cause the current account deficit to swell.

Sri Lanka Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a solid pace on the back of strong growth in services and a recovery in the agricultural and industrial sectors. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.2% in 2018 and 4.5% in 2019.

Sri Lanka Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)20.620.821.021.221.4
GDP per capita (USD)3,6093,8203,8393,8424,063
GDP (USD bn)74.379.380.581.587.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.45.05.04.53.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.03.97.8-3.30.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.811.53.827.117.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.56.19.2-2.84.3
Unemployment Rate4.44.34.74.44.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.2-6.2-7.0-5.4-5.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)71.872.278.579.679.4
Money (annual variation in %)18.013.117.218.917.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.71.34.64.57.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.02.82.24.06.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.508.507.508.508.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)171.6173.5151.0161.8172.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)129.1130.6136.1146.2152.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.4-2.5-2.3-2.1-2.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.5-2.0-1.9-1.7-2.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.6-8.3-8.4-8.9-9.6
Exports (USD billion)10.411.110.610.311.4
Imports (USD billion)18.019.418.919.221.0
Exports (annual variation in %)6.37.1-5.2-2.310.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.27.9-2.51.39.4
International Reserves (USD)7.58.27.36.08.0
External Debt (% of GDP)53.754.155.757.059.5

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Sri Lanka Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate159.80.02 %Aug 07

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