Sri Lanka Economic Forecast

Sri Lanka Economic Outlook

July 16, 2019

Although economic growth reached a one-year high in the first quarter, the second quarter will have been dismal owing to the 21 April terrorist bombings. Tourist arrivals fell 71% year-on-year in May and 57% in June, while the service PMI remained in the doldrums in May as all tourism-related sectors suffered. Nevertheless, growth may have bottomed-out in Q2, with the government slashing airline charges on 8 July in a bid to boost tourism. This, along with the reinstatement of the free visa program for 39 countries, a recent interest rate cut by the Central Bank and the extension of the IMF program, may support a modest rebound in Q3. Meanwhile, on 25 June, the government raised USD 2 billion through bond issuance, shoring up much-needed FX reserves.

Sri Lanka Economic Growth

Growth will likely be anemic this year as recent terrorist attacks depress tourism and investor confidence, which could hit government finances in turn. Large debt repayments due this year present additional weaknesses requiring external financing, while a regional growth slowdown is the main downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 2.9% in 2019, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.

Sri Lanka Economy Data

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International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)-  -  -  -  -  

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Sri Lanka Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate175.40.02 %Jul 11

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