Spain GDP Q3 2021


Spain: Second estimate revises up growth in Q3

December 24, 2021

According to a second estimate, GDP rose 2.6% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter, above the preliminary estimate of a 2.0% increase and following the 1.2% rise recorded in Q2. In year-on-year terms, the economy grew 3.4% in Q3 (previously reported: +2.7% year-on-year), moderating significantly from the 17.7% jump recorded in Q2, amid a waning low base effect.

A notable improvement in foreign demand drove the third quarter’s reading. Exports of goods and services rose a strong 7.1% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms (Q2: +1.3% s.a. qoq) thanks to a robust hospitality sector, which benefited from increasing tourist inflows. Imports, meanwhile, were up a 2.2% in quarterly terms (Q2: +4.5% s.a. qoq), highlighting softening domestic activity.

Indeed, domestic demand weakened in Q3. Private spending increased 1.0% on a quarterly basis, following 5.0% jump logged in Q2, amid rising inflation and soaring energy prices. Meanwhile, government consumption increased 0.5% from the prior quarter (Q2: +0.8% s.a. qoq), while fixed investment rose 1.2% as investment in tangible fixed assets, housing, and machinery and equipment rebounded (Q2: -2.5% s.a. qoq).

Our panelists project the economy to grow 6.0% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2023.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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Spain GDP Chart

Spain GDP Q3  2021 1

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: National Statistics Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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