Singapore: Non-oil exports unexpectedly rebound in February, despite another fall in electronics exports
March 18, 2019
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) increased by 4.9% year-on-year in February, rebounding from January’s 10.1% decline which had marked the sharpest fall in over two years. The reading broke a run of three consecutive monthly contractions and confounded analysts’ expectations of a 3.4% contraction. On a month-on-month seasonally-adjusted basis, NODX expanded 16.0% in February following the previous month’s 5.7% decrease.
February’s result was underpinned by a healthy 9.4% jump in non-electronic NODX which was only partially offset by an 8.0% fall in electronics exports. That said, non-electronic NODX growth was largely thanks to the volatile pharmaceutical and non-monetary gold subsectors. Particularly, exports to China surged thanks to greater exports of non-monetary gold, aromatic chemicals and petrochemicals. Demand for Singaporean goods in Hong Kong, the U.S. and Thailand also expanded, whereas demand from Japan, South Korea and the EU28 continued to contract.
Singapore Trade Balance Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see overall nominal exports expanding 0.8% in 2019 and imports growing 1.8%, with the trade surplus totaling USD 94.6 billion. For 2020, panelists see exports growing 4.7% and imports climbing 6.0%, with the trade surplus reaching USD 94. billion.
Author: Steven Burke, Economist