Singapore: Exports rebound with vigor in April

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) soared 11.8% in April, contrasting March’s revised 3.2% decline (previously reported: -2.7% yoy) and handsomely beating market expectations. As a result, the external sector strengthened following two consecutive months of soft readings.

The rise was driven by greater non-electronic exports—particularly of non-monetary goods, pharmaceuticals and food preparations. However, although April’s growth figures are impressive, they should be taken with a pinch of salt, as pharmaceutical exports are highly volatile. Moreover, the important electronic sector saw exports decline year-on-year for the fifth consecutive month. After being a major driver of export growth for much of 2017 thanks to booming world trade, this year’s performance is being affected in part by tough year-on-year comparatives. Greater demand from China, the EU and the U.S. underpinned April’s figure.

On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose 6.5%, contrasting the previous month’s 2.2% decline.

Singapore Exports Forecast

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see overall nominal exports expanding 7.2% in 2018, which would bring exports to a total of USD 424 billion. For 2019, the panel sees exports growing 5.4% and reaching a total of USD 447 billion. However, if simmering trade tensions between the U.S. and China come to the boil, this could dampen the performance of Singapore’s export sector.