Serbia Monetary Policy January 2019


Serbia: National Bank of Serbia holds rates in January

January 10, 2019

On 10 January, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate steady at 3.00%, where it has been since April 2018.

Low and stable inflation again led the Bank to keep the rate unchanged at its latest monetary policy meeting. Inflation remained in the lower part of the target band of 1.5%–4.5% in November, coming in at 1.9%. Price stability is expected to continue over the medium-term, with inflation moving closer towards the midpoint of the target range, supported by solid domestic demand. Moreover, the economic outlook remains robust due to a strengthening labor market, the government’s fiscal stimulus, and a pick-up in FDI.

While the NBS provided little forward guidance in its communiqué, all FocusEconomics panelists expect the Bank to continue to hold the rate at 3.00% through H2 2019. The Bank continued to stress that it would monitor external factors—namely monetary policy normalization by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, and global oil price movements—with a degree of caution.

The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 7 February.

Nearly all FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the Bank raising rates once by the end of this year. Our panelists expect the key policy rate to end 2019 at 3.29% and 2020 at 3.75%.


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Serbia Monetary Policy Chart

Serbia Monetary Policy January 2019

Note: NBS Reference Rate in %.
Source: National Bank of Serbia (NBS).

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