Serbian town in the winter

Serbia GDP Q2 2025

Serbia: GDP growth steadies in the second quarter

GDP growth disappoints markets: According to a preliminary reading, annual GDP growth was stable at Q1’s 2.0% in Q2, marking the joint-weakest expansion since Q4 2022, but remaining above the 2010–2019 pre-pandemic average. The reading came in below market expectations.

Drivers: The release did not include a detailed breakdown, but monthly data suggests that the external sector remained a drag on growth as the trade deficit persisted. Meanwhile, both retail trade and industrial output grew at sharper rates in Q2 vs Q1, suggesting that underlying domestic demand was upbeat. Inventories may have had a negative impact on Q2 GDP growth.

A comprehensive breakdown is set to be published on 1 September.

Panelist insight: Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, commented:

“For now, we keep our FY25 GDP [growth] forecast unchanged at 3.1% y/y as we still expect a pickup in activity in 2H25, supported also by base effects, although risks are now clearly tilted to the downside.”

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Email Team Member Linkedin Team Member Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest X Fullscreen Line Chart Globe Download Share