Serbia: GDP growth remains elevated in Q2 according to flash estimate
July 31, 2018
According to a flash estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 31 July, the economy performed well in the second quarter, with year-on-year growth coming in at 4.4% (Q1: +4.6% yoy). Despite marking a slight deceleration from the first quarter, Q2’s print was still one of the highest in the last decade, and in part reflects the positive impact of monetary easing since September 2017.
Although a comprehensive breakdown of the GDP figure will only be available on 31 August, the growth drivers were likely similar to the prior quarter. Private consumption should have performed well—as reflected in healthy retail sales readings throughout Q2—supported by robust real wage and employment growth. In addition, investment likely remained strong, underpinned by supportive financial conditions and FDI inflows. However, the external sector likely continued to drag on growth due to higher oil prices.
Author: Oliver Reynolds, Economist