Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabian oil output in May rises most in nearly four years
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 64.09 per barrel in May, down 4.2% from April. On 30 May, the commodity traded at USD 63.92 per barrel, down 0.6% from 30 April.
Turning to production, after rising at the sharpest pace since July 2024 in April, Saudi oil output soared by 2.0% in May to 9.18 million barrels per day (mbpd), the quickest rise in just under four years. The country’s output was slightly below its 9.20 mbpd quota.
Outlook: Saudi Arabia’s production should increase further in June and July, with its OPEC+ quota for the months fixed at 9.37 mbpd and 9.53 mbpd, respectively. Thus, by July, Saudi Arabia’s oil production should stand at its highest level in just over two years, shortly after OPEC+ announced a set of surprise production cuts. Thereafter, Saudi Arabia’s oil quota is set to gradually rise, reaching 9.98 mbpd in September 2026.
Looking at 2025 overall, our panelists anticipate the first annual rise in Saudi crude production in three years. However, output is still expected to remain below the previous high in 2022 of around 10.5 mbpd, a level unlikely to be surpassed before 2028.