Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia production rises in April as OPEC+ begins hiking output
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 66.93 per barrel in April, down 6.7% from March. On 30 April, the commodity traded at USD 64.33 per barrel, down 14.0% from 31 March. Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs weighed on prices.
Turning to production, Saudi oil output rose by 0.5% to 9.01 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April from 8.96 in March, the sharpest increase since July 2024. However, production was slightly below the 9.03 million-barrel OPEC+ quota.
Outlook: Saudi Arabia’s oil production should rise further in May, with its OPEC+ quota increased to 9.20 mbpd. In June, the quota is to rise a further 1.8% to 9.37 mbpd, after OPEC+ recently agreed to accelerate production hikes, reportedly in a move to punish members such as Iraq and Kazakhstan that are exceeding their quotas. This would place Saudi Arabia’s oil output at its highest level in two years—just after OPEC+ announced a set of surprise production cuts. Thereafter, Saudi Arabia’s oil quota is set to gradually increase, reaching 9.98 mbpd in September 2026.
Looking at 2025 overall, our panelists anticipate the first annual rise in Saudi crude production in three years. However, output is still expected to remain below the previous high in 2022 of around 10.5 mbpd, a level unlikely to be surpassed before 2028.
Panelist insight: On OPEC+’s recent decision to accelerate output hikes, Goldman Sachs’ Farouk Soussa said:
“On the fiscal side, we estimate that the decline in forward oil prices will be offset by increased production this year, leaving our government deficit forecast unchanged at -4.4% of GDP for 2025. For 2026, however, lower oil prices will see the deficit widen to -4.5% of GDP (previously -3.8%) before converging back to our previous forecast of -3.8% in 2026. On the external side, we estimate lower oil revenues will see the current account widen to -4.4% of GDP in 2025 (previous forecast -4.1%), -5.3% in 2026 (-4.4% previously) and -4.8% in 2027 (-4.2% previously). We have not adjusted our GDP growth numbers, believing that in the near term higher oil production will be offset by slower non-oil growth, leaving overall growth unchanged.”