Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabian oil output soars further in September
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 67.61 per barrel in September, up 0.5% from August. On 30 September, the commodity traded at USD 67.08 per barrel, down 1.6% from 29 August.
Turning to production, Saudi oil output was 9.96 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September, up 11.3% year on year (August: 9.71 mbpd; up 8.0% yoy). This marked the fifth consecutive year-on-year increase following a prolonged slump, and was the sharpest in just under three years. The acceleration was driven by looser OPEC+ output restrictions.
Outlook: The outlook for Saudi Arabia’s oil production this year and next has brightened. In October, OPEC+, under pressure from Riyadh, said that it would hike output for the eighth consecutive month in November.
Our Consensus Forecast is for Saudi crude production to rise annually for the first time in three years in 2025, and to increase even more sharply in 2026. Still, yearly output is expected to stay below 2022’s peak of about 10.5 mbpd until 2028.