Russia Trade Balance February 2021


Russia: Merchandise exports rebound in February

April 9, 2021

Merchandise exports rose 2.0% over the same month last year in February, rebounding from January’s 12.3% year-on-year drop. February’s outturn marked the first expansion in nearly two years and the strongest result since February 2019. Meanwhile, merchandise imports climbed 13.3% over the same month last year in February (January: +2.1% yoy), marking the best result since April 2018.

Meanwhile, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 8.3 billion surplus in February (January 2021: USD 9.3 billion surplus; February 2020: USD 10.2 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend deteriorated, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 85.8 billion surplus in February, compared to the USD 87.7 billion surplus in January.

Looking forward, higher global crude prices and a gradual easing in domestic oil production cuts should support exports in the reminder of Q1. Meanwhile, accelerating rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and recovering global economic activity bode well for the external sector in Q2.

FocusEconomics panelists forecast that exports will grow 20.7% in 2021 and imports will increase 12.2%, bringing the trade surplus to USD 131.0 billion. In 2022, FocusEconomics panelists expect exports will expand 5.1%, while imports will rise 7.7%, thus the trade surplus will grow to USD 130.0 billion.


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Russia Trade Balance Chart

Russia Trade12m February 2021

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia).

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