Russia Trade Balance May 2020


Russia: Merchandise exports dive at the sharpest pace in over four years in May

July 15, 2020

Merchandise exports plummeted 35.5% on annual basis in May (April: -34.5% year-on-year). May’s result marked the sharpest decline since January 2016. Meanwhile, merchandise imports plummeted 13.5% over the same month last year in May (April: -20.3% yoy).

As a result, merchandise trade balance deteriorated, recording a USD 3.7 billion surplus in May (April: USD 6.4 billion surplus) and marking the worst result since April 2003. Lastly, the trend pointed down, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 133.3 billion surplus in May, compared to USD 142.1 billion surplus in April.

Our panelists forecast that exports will plummet 32.1% in 2020 and imports will fall 20.1%, bringing the trade surplus to USD 80.0 billion. In 2021, FocusEconomics panelists expect exports will expand 17.3%, while imports will rise 12.8%, bringing the trade surplus up to USD 103.0 billion.


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Russia Trade Balance Chart

Russia Trade12m May 20 20 0

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia).

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