Russia: Inflation falls to lowest level since November 2024 in June
Latest reading: Inflation came in at 9.4% in June, down from May’s 9.9%. June’s figure marked the weakest inflation rate since November 2024 and was broad-based: Price pressures for both goods and services slowed from the prior month, likely restrained by previous monetary policy tightening.
Still, annual average inflation ticked up to 9.5% in June (May: 9.4%). Meanwhile, core inflation edged down to 8.7% in June from the previous month’s 8.9%.
Finally, consumer prices increased 0.20% over the previous month in June, coming in below the 0.43% increase logged in May. June’s result marked the weakest reading since August 2024.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts said:
“We expect inflation to remain high in 2025, well above the CBR’s target rate of 4%. Despite tight monetary policy and a stronger rouble in recent months, inflation expectations remain high, the labour market remains tight and war spending remains substantial, which continues to fuel inflation. […] This forecast assumes that the [Central Bank] will ease only cautiously. Given the current slowdown in economic activity, the [Bank] may ease much more quickly than currently expected to avoid a recession, which remains a considerable upside risk for inflation.”