Russia: Inflation jumps to five-month high in April
May 7, 2020
In March, consumer prices rose 0.8% over the previous month, accelerating modestly from March’s 0.6% rise and marking the largest increase since January 2019. According to Rosstat, the overall upturn was spearheaded by higher prices for food products. Meanwhile, prices for non-food products rose at a milder pace in April, whereas prices for services remained virtually stable from the previous month.
Inflation jumped to 3.1% in April, from 2.5% in March, marking the highest reading since November 2019. That said, annual average inflation continued to trend down at the outset of Q2, coming it at 3.6% in April, from 3.8% in March.
Commenting on the result, Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist at ING, noted:
“[The] acceleration of CPI appears temporary, as the exhaustion the effects of agro inflation and RUB depreciation, combined with mounting disinflationary pressure of demand, should bring Russian CPI back on the downward path in 2H20, provided no new shocks take place […] This is unlikely to prevent Bank of Russia from making at least one 50 bp cut, especially if the fiscal stance remains conservative”.
Author: Almanas Stanapedis, Economist