Romania: The economy broadly keeps pace in Q2
August 14, 2018
In the second quarter, the economy expanded 4.1% over the same period last year, according to a preliminary estimate released by the National Institute of Statistics on 14 August. Growth was broadly unchanged from Q1’s 4.0% year-on-year expansion.
Although a breakdown by components is not yet available, solid expansions in retail sales throughout the quarter, helped by tight labor market conditions, suggest household spending underpinned growth. However, the scope of growth in private consumption was restrained by increasing inflationary pressures. Moreover, soft industrial production readings and rising interest rates point to the effects of economic overheating and indicate fixed investment could have increased only moderately. On a brighter note, exports outpaced imports in Q2, suggesting the external sector withstood the weakness in demand from the EU.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP growth adjusted for seasonal effects accelerated from the previous quarter, coming in at 1.4% (Q1: +0.1% quarter-on-quarter) and marking the best result in three quarters. The Statistical Office (INSSE) will release more detailed data on 7 September.
Romania GDP Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 4.0% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2019, the panel sees the economy expanding 3.5%.