Romania: Growth slows to over five-year low in Q3
November 14, 2019
The economy grew 3.0% year-on-year in the third quarter, down from the second quarter’s 4.4% expansion and marking the weakest acceleration since Q2 2014, according to a flash estimate released by the Statistical Institute. The print undershot analysts’ expectations largely due to big GDP data revisions; nevertheless, it exceeded the EU average of 1.3%.
In seasonally-adjusted terms, the economy grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (Q2: +0.8% quarter-on-quarter s.a.).
With regards to the third quarter outturn, analysts at ING noted:
“On the demand side, we could see a strong contribution from private consumption in sequential terms, as suggested by retail sales which accelerated by 1.8% QoQ from 0.1% in the previous quarter. Investments, net exports and inventories likely had a negative contribution. On the supply side, services are likely to remain the main contributor, while industry should remain a drag on GDP growth. Due to big data revision, we revise down our full year GDP growth for this year to 3.6% YoY from 4.0% previously.”
Comprehensive second-quarter national accounts will be released on 5 December.
Author: Nicolás J. Aguilar, Economist