Romania GDP Q3 2019

Romania

Romania: Growth slows to over five-year low in Q3

November 14, 2019

The economy grew 3.0% year-on-year in the third quarter, down from the second quarter’s 4.4% expansion and marking the weakest acceleration since Q2 2014, according to a flash estimate released by the Statistical Institute. The print undershot analysts’ expectations largely due to big GDP data revisions; nevertheless, it exceeded the EU average of 1.3%.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, the economy grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (Q2: +0.8% quarter-on-quarter s.a.).

With regards to the third quarter outturn, analysts at ING noted:

“On the demand side, we could see a strong contribution from private consumption in sequential terms, as suggested by retail sales which accelerated by 1.8% QoQ from 0.1% in the previous quarter. Investments, net exports and inventories likely had a negative contribution. On the supply side, services are likely to remain the main contributor, while industry should remain a drag on GDP growth. Due to big data revision, we revise down our full year GDP growth for this year to 3.6% YoY from 4.0% previously.”

Comprehensive second-quarter national accounts will be released on 5 December.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast analysts see growth at 3.3% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2021, analysts see growth at 2.9%.


Author:, Economist

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Romania GDP Q3 2019

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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