Romania: GDP growth weakens in Q2
October 7, 2013
In the second quarter, GDP expanded 1.5% over the same quarter last year, according to more detailed data published on 7 October. The reading matched the preliminary estimate and was below the 2.2% expansion recorded in the first quarter.
The growth slowdown came on the back of deteriorating domestic demand, while the external sector improved. Private consumption expanded 0.3% (Q1: -0.3% year on year), while government consumption contracted 0.4% (Q1: -0.3% yoy).Fixed investment slowed from a 2.2% rise in the first quarter to a 1.5% increase in the second quarter.
Meanwhile, exports rose 12.1%, which marked an improvement over the 9.1% reported in the first quarter. On the other hand, imports contracted 1.7% (Q1: -0.1% yoy). As a consequence, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth increased from 6.5 percentage points in Q1 to 9.1 percentage points in Q2.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 0.5% in seasonally adjusted terms in Q2, which met the preliminary estimate and was slightly above the 0.4% expansion recorded in Q1.
The government expects GDP to expand 1.9% this year, before accelerating to 2.2% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 1.4% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month's projection. For next year, the panel expects the economy to expand 2.5%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate.
Author: Dirina Mançellari, Senior Economist