Romania GDP Q2 2022

Romania

Romania: GDP growth moderates but beats expectations again in Q2

August 17, 2022

According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth slowed to 5.3% year on year in the second quarter, from 6.4% in the first quarter. As in Q1, the reading was much higher than analysts had expected. As retail sales continued to expand at a healthy pace in the quarter, the full GDP breakdown due on 7 September is likely to show a strong performance of services. Romania has been the best-performing large economy in Central and Eastern Europe since the pandemic hit.

On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth slowed notably to 2.1% in Q2, from the previous quarter's 5.1% expansion.

Commenting on the release and the outlook ahead, Nicolaie Chidesciuc from JPMorgan commented:

“We see the strong GDP prints in 1H22 as a process of normalization, mainly in services, after 2H21 saw a large negative impact due to the serious political crisis which ran concurrently with the most acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania. […] Romania’s growth performance is likely to remain robust, but we are revising the quarterly growth profile lower. The biggest revision is to 3Q22 and it is driven by two factors: we expect some payback after strong growth in 1H22 and, in addition, there are indications of a significant drop in agricultural output.”

Our panelists see GDP expanding 4.2% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2023, analysts see growth at 3.2%.


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