Qatar: GDP growth beats expectations again in Q1, but still slows
Print tops expectations again: GDP rose 3.7% year on year in Q1. The reading again overshot market expectations, despite slowing from the 6.1% increase registered in the prior quarter, which had marked the sharpest rise in just under 14 years.
Non-oil-and-gas firms continue to drive growth: As has been the case since early last year, economic growth was driven by the non-mining and quarrying sector—i.e. economic activities not related to oil or gas—which expanded 5.3% in Q1 (Q4: +6.1% yoy), a rapid pace. The sector likely continued to be bolstered by the government’s push to diversify the economy, as well as recent declines in interest rates. Sectors doing well included manufacturing, real estate plus wholesale and retail trade.
In contrast, the mining and quarrying sector grew a weak 1.0% (Q4: +6.2% yoy), slowing from the prior quarter’s 6.2% increase, reflecting a soft expansion in oil output.
Growth to pick up ahead: GDP growth is projected to gradually accelerate ahead, reaching a peak of nearly 8% in late 2026 as the country significantly ramps up its LNG export capacity as part of the North Field expansion project. That said, recent delays in the project mean our panelists have recently downgraded their forecasts.