Portugal GDP Q1 2020

Portugal

Portugal: GDP records largest drop on record in Q1 on Covid-19 impact

May 29, 2020

GDP plunged 3.8% in seasonally-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1 2020 (Q4 2019: +0.7% s.a. qoq), marking the steepest fall on record as Covid-19 started to take its toll.

Private consumption sank 3.0% s.a. qoq in Q1, contrasting the 0.1% uptick logged in the previous quarter amid lockdown measures and suspension of business activity. Government consumption fell 0.7% in Q1 (Q4 2019: +0.5% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, fixed investment bounced back after three consecutive quarters of decline, growing 1.8% in Q1 (Q4 2019: -0.9% s.a. qoq).

Exports of goods and services collapsed 7.1% in Q1, marking the worst reading since Q1 2009 (Q4 2019: +4.1% s.a. qoq). Similarly, imports of goods and services shrank 3.1% in Q4 2019 (Q4: +0.7% s.a. qoq).

On an annual basis, the economy contracted 2.3% in Q1, swinging from Q4 2019's 2.2% expansion. Q1's reading marked the sharpest drop since Q1 2013.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP plunging 8.2% in 2020, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and climbing 5.4% in 2021.


Author:, Economist

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Portugal GDP Q1  20 20

Note: Quarter-on-quarter (s.a.) and year-on-year changes in GDP in %.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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