Portugal GDP Q4 2018


Portugal: Economy picks up in Q4 2018

February 14, 2019

According to a flash GDP estimate released by the National Statistical Institute (INE) on 14 February, the economy picked up in the final quarter of last year, with economic growth in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted terms inching up to 0.4% from a 0.3% expansion in the third quarter. Economic growth, on an annual basis, continued to moderate, however, slipping to 1.7% in Q4 from 2.1% in Q3. Overall, the economy lost pace in 2018, with GDP growth falling to 2.1% in 2018 from 2.8% in 2017.

While a comprehensive breakdown of the quarter-on-quarter result will be released on 28 February, the preliminary estimate indicated that Q4’s upturn was likely owing to a less negative contribution by the external sector. On the flip side, the pace of expansion in domestic demand likely moderated.

The Bank of Portugal projects the economy will expand 1.8% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.7% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2020.


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Portugal GDP Chart

Portugal GDP Q4  2018

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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