Portugal Economic Sentiment July 2018


Portugal: Consumer confidence tumbles to 16-month low, while economic sentiment inches up in July

July 30, 2018

According to the National Statistics Institute’s (INE) survey of consumer sentiment released on 30 July, consumer confidence tumbled to minus 1.4 points in July, down from 1.3 points in June. This was the first time in 16 months that the indicator fell below the critical zero-point threshold into pessimistic territory. July’s print reflected an across-the-board deterioration in the components. Consumer sentiment regarding their personal financial situation in the next 12 months fell the most, losing more than half of its value from the previous month. Households were also more pessimistic their savings ability over the same period and their views over the country’s unemployment situation deteriorated to the worst level in more than two years. On the other hand, consumers’ outlook on the general economic situation over the next 12 months was more upbeat compared to the previous month.

On the other hand, the overall economic climate indicator inched up to 2.5 points in July from 2.4 points in June. Underpinning the marginal rise in the print was an upturn in business sentiment in the manufacturing sector, which rose thanks to an improved outlook on production in the next three months. Meanwhile, sentiment in the construction and public works, trade and services sectors worsened from the previous month. The downturn in the construction and public works sector was caused by a deterioration in the outlook on current order books, while less optimism over wholesale led to a decline in sentiment in the trade sector. A deterioration in sentiment in the services sector was underpinned by less favorable outlooks on the business situation and demand over the past three months.

FocusEconomics panelists expect fixed investment to increase 5.0% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.0% in 2019. Panelists expect private consumption to grow 2.3% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2019.


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Portugal Economic Sentiment Chart

Portugal Economic Sentiment July 2018

Note: Consumer Confidence and Economic Climate indicators.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).

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