Poland Retail May 2022

Poland

Poland: Retail sales growth moderates but remains strong in May

June 23, 2022

Retail sales grew 23.6% compared to the same month a year earlier in May, which was below April's 33.4% surge. Looking at the details of the release, sales of food and of textiles, clothing and footwear expanded robustly in the month, while motor vehicles, motorcycles and parts sales continued to contract in May.

Meanwhile, the trend improved, with the annual average growth of retail sales coming in at 17.6%, up from April's 17.3%.

Commenting on the release, Adam Antoniak, senior economist at ING, stated:

“Consumer demand, boosted by the fiscal expansion, remains strong despite rapidly rising prices. We estimate annualized consumption growth in 2Q22 to be higher than in 1Q22. Strong consumer demand means that upward pressure on prices will continue. […] Further monetary tightening will be required to contain inflation.

May's set of economic data (industrial production, retail sales, construction output) is suggestive of a moderate economic slowdown and does not raise major concerns about the economic conditions in 2Q22. We estimate that GDP growth will be close to 6% YoY with strong household consumption. “

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption growing 4.3% in 2022, which is from last month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees private consumption expanding 3.0%.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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Poland Retail Chart


Poland Retail May 2022

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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