Poland Inflation October 2019

Poland

Poland: Inflation eases further in October

November 6, 2019

Consumer prices rose 0.2% over the previous month in October, following September’s flat reading, according to provisional data released by the Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS). Higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages and utilities more than offset lower prices for fuels. Core consumer prices in September (the latest month for which data is available) rose 0.2% in month-on-month terms, matching August’s uptick.

Inflation dipped to 2.5% in October from 2.6% in September, and thus hit the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target range of 2.5% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. For its part, core inflation accelerated to 2.4% in September from 2.2% in August, marking the highest reading since April 2012.

All told, annual average inflation inched up from September’s 1.9% to 2.0% in October, the highest print since June 2013.

Commenting on the likely evolution of inflation going forward, Jakub Rybacki, Economist at ING, noted:

“A stronger increase in CPI should occur in 1Q20 and we forecast something close to 3.5%YoY. Core inflation is likely to increase further as a response to higher labour and energy costs. Potential overshooting of the central bank's inflation target’s upper band (3.5%YoY) will depend on volatile components i.e. food and energy prices, but also on the magnitude of price increases related to the minimum wage hike”.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 2.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2021, the panel sees inflation averaging 2.6%.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Poland Inflation October 2019 0

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS).


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