Poland: Inflation eases further in October
November 6, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.2% over the previous month in October, following September’s flat reading, according to provisional data released by the Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS). Higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages and utilities more than offset lower prices for fuels. Core consumer prices in September (the latest month for which data is available) rose 0.2% in month-on-month terms, matching August’s uptick.
Inflation dipped to 2.5% in October from 2.6% in September, and thus hit the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target range of 2.5% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. For its part, core inflation accelerated to 2.4% in September from 2.2% in August, marking the highest reading since April 2012.
All told, annual average inflation inched up from September’s 1.9% to 2.0% in October, the highest print since June 2013.
Commenting on the likely evolution of inflation going forward, Jakub Rybacki, Economist at ING, noted:
“A stronger increase in CPI should occur in 1Q20 and we forecast something close to 3.5%YoY. Core inflation is likely to increase further as a response to higher labour and energy costs. Potential overshooting of the central bank's inflation target’s upper band (3.5%YoY) will depend on volatile components i.e. food and energy prices, but also on the magnitude of price increases related to the minimum wage hike”.