Poland: Growth eases to two-year low in Q2 but remains upbeat nonetheless
August 14, 2019
According to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Institute (GUS) on 14 August, the economy grew 4.4% year-on-year in the second quarter, marking the slowest pace in two years. The outturn slightly undershot analysts’ expectations and also came in below the 4.7% year-on-year expansion recorded in Q1. Ahead of comprehensive second-quarter national accounts on 30 August, it appears that household spending, supported by declining unemployment and as evidenced by buoyant retail sales growth in the quarter, powered the still-healthy showing.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth also slowed to 0.8% in seasonally-adjusted terms from Q1’s 1.4% expansion.
Growth will moderate this year, due to a weak EU backdrop and as the economy appears to be approaching the latter stages of the business cycle. That said, resilient domestic demand, supported by sustained wage growth and fiscal stimulus, should cushion the slowdown.
Author: Javier Colato, Economist