Poland GDP Q4 2017


Poland: Growth accelerates further in Q4

February 14, 2018

Economic growth picked up pace in the fourth quarter of 2017. According to preliminary data released by the Central Statistics Office on 14 February, the economy expanded 5.1% annually in Q4, an acceleration from 4.9% in Q3. The reading, a multi-year high, was broadly in line with market expectations. In a previous press release, the Central Statistics Office already showed that GDP for the year as a whole grew 4.6%, the strongest reading since 2011.

Although a breakdown by components is not yet available, a strong expansion in retail sales recorded throughout Q4 and tight labor market conditions suggest that growth once again came on the back of booming private consumption. Moreover, robust readings for both industrial production and the manufacturing PMI in the quarter point to a healthy expansion in fixed investment.

On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP growth decelerated slightly, from a 1.2% expansion in Q3 to a softer 1.0% increase in Q4. More detailed data will be released on 28 February.

Poland GDP Forecast

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will grow 3.4% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists see the economy growing 3.1%.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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Poland GDP Chart

Poland GDP Q4  2017

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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