Poland: Economy notches solid Q3 growth
November 30, 2018
A preliminary estimate of national accounts released by the Statistical Office on 30 November confirmed that Poland was the fastest growing economy in the European Union in the third quarter. In year-on-year terms, GDP expanded 5.1%, matching the second quarter’s reading and overshooting analysts’ expectations of an impending slowdown.
A strong domestic economy sustained the momentum. The third quarter saw a 9.9% year-on-year surge in fixed investment—the highest reading in over three years and up from the second quarter’s revised 4.7% growth reading (previously reported: +4.5% year-on-year). Private consumption, however, moderated to 4.5% growth from 4.9% despite a tighter labor market and easing inflation through end-quarter. Meanwhile, government spending saw marginal gains, ticking up to 3.6% growth from 3.5% in the previous quarter.
On the external front, net exports subtracted from growth in the third quarter—contrasting their contribution in the second quarter. Export growth waned (Q3: +4.9% yoy) on the heels of a revised 7.6% year-on-year climb in the second quarter (previously reported: +6.9% yoy). In contrast, import growth ticked up to 6.9% from 6.5% in the previous quarter.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew 1.7% in seasonally-adjusted terms, up from the second’s quarter revised 1.1% growth reading (previously reported: +1.0% quarter-on-quarter s.a.).
Author: Nicolás J. Aguilar, Economist