Poland GDP Q3 2018


Poland: Economy notches solid Q3 growth

November 30, 2018

A preliminary estimate of national accounts released by the Statistical Office on 30 November confirmed that Poland was the fastest growing economy in the European Union in the third quarter. In year-on-year terms, GDP expanded 5.1%, matching the second quarter’s reading and overshooting analysts’ expectations of an impending slowdown.

A strong domestic economy sustained the momentum. The third quarter saw a 9.9% year-on-year surge in fixed investment—the highest reading in over three years and up from the second quarter’s revised 4.7% growth reading (previously reported: +4.5% year-on-year). Private consumption, however, moderated to 4.5% growth from 4.9% despite a tighter labor market and easing inflation through end-quarter. Meanwhile, government spending saw marginal gains, ticking up to 3.6% growth from 3.5% in the previous quarter.

On the external front, net exports subtracted from growth in the third quarter—contrasting their contribution in the second quarter. Export growth waned (Q3: +4.9% yoy) on the heels of a revised 7.6% year-on-year climb in the second quarter (previously reported: +6.9% yoy). In contrast, import growth ticked up to 6.9% from 6.5% in the previous quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew 1.7% in seasonally-adjusted terms, up from the second’s quarter revised 1.1% growth reading (previously reported: +1.0% quarter-on-quarter s.a.).

Looking ahead, the domestically-driven gains are expected to sustain the economy through year-end amid tailwinds from the Central Bank’s accommodative monetary policy and the tight labor market. Economic growth is expected to wane in the years to come, however, in line with a broader slowdown across Europe. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast analysts expect growth of 3.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.


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Poland GDP Chart

Poland GDP Q3  2018 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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