Philippines: GDP growth slows in Q3
November 28, 2013
GDP expanded 7.0% in Q3 over the same period last year. The reading came in below the revised 7.6% rise observed in Q2 (previously reported: +7.5% year-on-year) and fell just short of market expectations of a 7.1% expansion. Q3 economic performance was mainly underpinned by a rise in private consumption and a recovery in exports.
Private consumption accelerated from a 5.1% increase in Q2 to a 6.2% rise in Q3. Government consumption rose 4.6% in Q3, which was drastically below the 18.0% increase seen in Q2. Fixed investment growth remained virtually unchanged at 13.1% (Q2: +13.2% yoy).
In the external sector, exports of goods and services expanded 10.6% in the third quarter, following the 6.8% decrease observed in the second quarter. Imports increased to a robust 14.2% (Q2: -2.9% yoy). As a result of the relatively higher turnaround in imports, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth fell slightly from minus 1.9 percentage points in the second quarter to minus 2.0 percentage points in the third.
The government expects growth of between 6.5% and 7.0% in 2013. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect economic growth to reach 7.0% this year, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2014 panelists expect growth to slow to 6.2%, which is also unchanged from last month's estimate.
Author: Carl Kelly, Economist