Peru Trade October 2018


Peru: Trade balance swings to deficit in October, as commodity exports continue to shrink

December 13, 2018

Peru’s trade balance recorded a USD 155 million deficit in October, swinging from September’s USD 521 million surplus and from the USD 368 million surplus recorded in the same month of last year. The reading represents the worst result in almost two and a half years.

Exports declined 2.8% year-on-year in October, following September’s sharp 11.3% fall. October’s drop was due to marked declines in exports of gold, copper, zinc and oil-based fuels. Exports to China declined markedly, along with sales to South Korea which more than halved. This was partially offset by significant expansions in the overseas sales of fishing and metal mechanic products. Meanwhile, imports rose a robust 11.4% annually in October, on surging purchases of fuels and lubricants and of building materials, well above September’s 1.7% growth.

In the 12 months leading up to October, the trade surplus was USD 6.8 billion, below September’s USD 7.3 billion and the lowest reading in 8 months.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see exports growing 5.1% in 2019 and the trade balance recording a surplus of USD 5.0 billion. For 2020, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 4.8% and a trade surplus of USD 4.5 billion.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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Peru Trade Chart

Peru Trade12m October 2018

Note: 12 month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP)

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