Peru GDP Q4 2018

Peru

Peru: GDP growth jumps in final quarter of 2018

February 27, 2019

Economic growth accelerated considerably in the fourth quarter, owing to stronger domestic and external demand. Annual GDP growth in the quarter rose to 4.8%, which doubled the third quarter’s 2.4% year-on-year expansion. The reading brings growth for 2018 as a whole to 4.0%, well above 2017’s 2.5% expansion.

Fixed investment growth jumped (Q4: +5.8% year-on-year; Q3: +1.0% yoy), boosted by surging public investment in road infrastructure and robust public spending linked to the Pan American Games. Private investment, meanwhile, recorded a healthy expansion, supported by rising investment in the mining sector and low interest rates. Additionally, private consumption gained steam, increasing 3.8% year-on-year following Q3’s 3.3% expansion. Household spending was underpinned by strong credit growth, rising wages and growing employment. Meanwhile, government consumption swung from a 0.7% dip in Q3 to a 2.2% increase in Q4, due to soaring spending from local governments. Overall, domestic demand accelerated from a 3.0% expansion in Q3 to 3.8% growth in Q4.

The external sector’s contribution to growth swung from minus 0.5 percentage points in Q3 to plus 1.1 percentage points in Q4. Exports rose 2.6% in Q4, contrasting Q3’s 0.6% contraction. Notable increases were recorded in exports of agricultural, fishing and textile products. Reflecting cooling demand for consumer durables and capital goods for transport and industry, imports contracted 1.7% in Q4, contrasting the 1.2% expansion logged in Q3.

Solid GDP growth will likely carry over into 2019, underpinned by robust domestic demand and healthy commodity exports. Strengthening investor sentiment, coupled with supportive credit growth, are expected to fuel business investment, especially in the mining sector, while infrastructure spending should also continue to increase. Furthermore, sturdy employment growth and more upbeat consumer confidence will buttress private consumption. A pronounced slowdown in China’s growth and lingering global trade tensions represent the main downward risks.

Peru GDP Forecast


FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.8% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

Sample Report

Looking for forecasts related to GDP in Peru? Download a sample report now.

Download

Peru GDP Chart


Peru GDP Q4 2018

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast


Peru Economic News

  • Peru: Economic activity growth picks up in February

    April 15, 2019

    Economic activity expanded 2.1% year-on-year in February, picking up some pace from January’s subdued 1.6% increase, which had marked the weakest reading in over one year.

    Read more

  • Peru: Central Bank stands pat at March meeting

    April 12, 2019

    At its monetary policy meeting on 11 April, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) kept the policy interest rate unchanged at an eight-year low of 2.75%, matching market expectations.

    Read more

  • Peru: Consumer confidence plummets in March

    April 6, 2019

    The consumer confidence indicator published by GfK tumbled to 94 in March from 104 in February, which had marked the best result in over two years.

    Read more

  • Peru: Trade surplus narrows further in February on dwindling exports

    April 5, 2019

    Peru’s trade balance recorded a USD 326 million surplus in February, narrowing from January’s USD 449 million surplus and also lower than the USD 552 million surplus recorded in the same month of last year. Exports declined 3.8% year-on-year in February, due to a drop in prices, following January’s sharper 4.1% fall.

    Read more

  • Peru: Businesses grow more optimistic in March

    April 5, 2019

    The business confidence indicator rose from February’s 58.5 to 59.6 in March, and thus moved further above the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism, where it has been for almost two years. March’s improvement came chiefly on the back of better prospects on the general economic situation, as well as on demand prospects.

    Read more

More news

Search form