Peru: Economic activity decelerates in July but beats expectations
Latest reading: Economic activity was up 3.4% on a year-on-year basis in July, following a 4.5% increase in the prior month and above market expectations.
Relative to the prior month’s data, readings in July softened for the commerce sector (+2.7% year on year vs +3.1% in June), the agricultural sector (+8.5% vs +8.8% in June), the construction sector (+5.0% vs +9.6% in June) and the manufacturing sector (+3.7% vs +7.3% in June). In contrast, the growth reading for mining and hydrocarbons improved in July (+2.0% vs +1.0% in June).
In month-on-month terms, economic activity increased 0.9% in July, following 0.2% growth in the prior month.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, BBVA analysts said:
“With July’s data, cumulative growth stands at 3.65%. In the coming months, a moderation is expected due to a higher comparison base (partly from private pension withdrawals in 2024), weaker public investment, and greater caution in private spending ahead of the elections. In this context, we estimate the economy will grow between 2.5% and 3.0% in the second half of the year.”