Peru: Economic activity decelerates in August
Latest reading: Economic activity rose 3.2% in annual terms in August, following 3.4% growth in the prior month and just above market expectations.
Relative to the previous month’s data, readings in August worsened for agriculture (+6.4% on a year-on-year basis vs +8.5% in July), construction (+3.6% vs +5.0% in July), mining and hydrocarbons (+1.8% vs +2.0% in July) and manufacturing (+0.1% vs +3.7% in July). In contrast, the reading for commerce improved in August (+3.8% vs +2.7% in July).
On a month-on-month basis, economic activity increased 0.3% in August, following a 0.9% increase in the prior month.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, BBVA’s Yalina Crispin and Hugo Vega de la Cruz said:
“With the August data, year-to-date growth stands at 3.3%. Considering available indicators for September, we estimate that GDP growth in the third quarter will be slightly above 3.0%, higher than in our base scenario, reflecting stronger performance in non-primary sectors and thus firmer domestic demand. Our annual growth forecast in the base scenario (3.1%) therefore carries an upward bias.”