Peru: Pace of economic expansion slows further in December
February 15, 2018
Economic activity continued to lose steam in December, increasing just 1.3% year-on-year, down from November’s already subdued 1.8% expansion. December’s slowdown marked the third consecutive month of softening growth. In 2017 overall, economic activity grew 2.5%, decelerating considerably from the 3.9% expansion logged in 2016.
A supportive external sector was once again behind the expansion in December, led by growth in sales of fishing, metal-mechanical, chemical, textile and mining products to overseas markets. That said, the annual pace of export growth in December was considerably weaker than in the previous month. Household consumption continued to increase in the month, also at a much softer pace than in November. It was reflected in expanding consumer credit, rising imports of non-durable consumer goods and slow growth in retail sales.
Annual growth in December was generally broad-based, with the mining, construction, agricultural, telecommunication, trade and transport sectors leading the way. The construction sector continued to benefit from rising public infrastructure expenditure, as well as from expanding office building activity. On the downside, the contractions in both the manufacturing and the fishing sectors sharpened from the prior month.
Despite the decrease in the headline print, annual average variation in economic activity came in at 2.5% in December, marginally up from November’s 2.4%.
Peru GDP Forecast
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP will expand 4.0% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2019, the panel expects the economy to grow 3.4%.