Peru Economic Activity March 2021

Peru

Peru: Economic activity surges at over-decade-high rate in March

May 14, 2021

Economic activity rocketed 18.2% higher in March, contrasting February’s 4.2% fall and marking the largest year-on-year growth rate since at least 2008. March’s surge was in part due to a low base effect, with March 2020 coinciding with the start of stringent lockdown conditions due to the outbreak of the pandemic, which suppressed activity during the month. Nonetheless, sharp accelerations in construction, manufacturing and mining operations drove the reading this month.

On a monthly basis, economic activity fell 0.5% in March (February: -2.6% mom). Meanwhile, the trend improved markedly, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at minus 9.2%, up from February's minus 12.1% reading.

Looking ahead, April is likely to see an even larger rebound in activity, not least due to the easing of restrictions during the month. Furthermore, a favorable base effect should see impressive growth rates in the coming months, since April 2020 coincided with the deepest downturn in activity as a result of the strict lockdown placed on the country at the outset of the pandemic that shackled the economy significantly.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists estimate that GDP will expand 9.5% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and grow 4.5% in 2022.


Author:, Economist

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Peru Economic Activity March 2021

Note: Year-on-year changes of economic activity and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Peru National Statistical Institute (INEI) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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