Peru Economic Activity January 2021

Peru

Peru: Economic activity falls in January

March 18, 2021

Economic activity fell 1.0% in January, contrasting December’s 0.5% growth which had marked the first increase in activity since February 2020. January’s decline reflected the total lockdown of Lima and nine other regions instigated towards the end of the month, as authorities responded to a rapid escalation of daily infections since the start of 2021. As such, contractions in the hospitality, transport and retail sectors drove the overall reading.

On a monthly basis, economic activity dropped 0.2% in January (December: +2.1% mom) and marked the first decline in nine months. Meanwhile, the trend pointed slightly downwards, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at minus 11.4%, down from December's minus 11.1% reading.

Regarding the outlook, Yalina Crispin and Hugo Vega, economists at BBVA Research, commented:

“[The] loss of momentum appears to have been accentuated in February as a result of the targeted lockdown measures that were implemented that month, [although] these were less restrictive than those that occurred in the second quarter of 2020. In March, the relaxation of the isolation measures will provide a new boost to the activity, which could help it to return to the path of recovery.”

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists estimate that GDP will expand 9.5% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and grow 4.3% in 2022.


Author:, Economist

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Peru Economic Activity January 2021

Note: Year-on-year changes of economic activity and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Peru National Statistical Institute (INEI) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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