Panama GDP Q3 2020

Panama

Panama: GDP declines at a softer rate in Q3

December 15, 2020

According to a preliminary estimate, GDP fell at a milder pace of 23.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, above the 38.2% contraction tallied in the second quarter.

Services output fell 18.4% in the third quarter—marking a strong improvement from the second quarter's 29.9% contraction—with the key transportation subsector contracting at a softer pace, likely on improved Panama Canal data as global economic activity recovered. Moreover, industrial activity contracted at a softer pace of 45.3% in Q3 (Q2: -65.5% yoy), amid milder declines in manufacturing and construction. Meanwhile, agricultural growth fell to 2.9% in Q3, marking the worst reading since Q2 2019 (Q2: +4.3% yoy).

Moving on to Q4, the economic decline should be continuing to ease, although momentum will remain constrained as lingering Covid-19-related restrictions hamper activity. The government announced the tightening of restrictions in mid-December, with expanded curfew hours, two total lockdowns over the Christmas and new year holidays, and the reintroduction of gender-based mobility restrictions. The measures threaten to spill over into next year and delay the recovery in activity.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that the economy will expand 6.4% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and grow 5.5% in 2022.


Author:, Junior Economist

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Panama GDP Q3  20 20

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censo and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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