Norway GDP October 2019


Norway: Economic growth accelerates at fastest pace since June 2018

December 9, 2019

Economic output jumped 1.2% in October, compared to the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, contrasting September’s 0.5% decrease (previously reported: -0.4% month-on-month seasonally-adjusted). In the rolling quarter August–October period, the total economy contracted 0.1% from the previous rolling quarter, following a flat reading in the July–September period.

Mainland GDP—which excludes hydrocarbon extraction and related transport—expanded 0.1% in October from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, following a flat reading in September. In August–October, mainland GDP expanded 0.3% from the previous rolling quarter, down from 0.7% in the July–September period.

In October, robust gross fixed capital formation largely led the month-on-month increase in economic output, while a weaker contraction in private consumption weighed less on the headline figure than it did in the previous month. On the external front, exports and imports of goods and services decreased notably in October.

Going forward, strong wage growth and a healthy labor market should continue to support household spending and, thus, economic growth. Moreover, increased oil and gas extraction from the Johan Sverdrup offshore oil platform, which came online in early October, should support investment and exports. Nevertheless, recent monetary tightening will likely limit growth in domestic demand.

Our panelists see total GDP expanding 2.1% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2021. In terms of mainland GDP, our panelists see growth of 1.8% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 1.7% in 2021.

Author:, Economist

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