Nigeria: Central Bank of Nigeria cuts rates in September
September reduction is first in five years: At its meeting on 23 September, the Central Bank of Nigeria decided to reduce the monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 27.00%, a smaller cut than markets expected. The cut was the first since the pandemic in 2020.
Slowing inflation and stronger currency drive cautious cut: The key domestic factors influencing the Central Bank’s decision included a sustained period of disinflation over the past five months, with projections indicating a continued decline in inflation ahead, plus the need to support economic recovery efforts. Currency appreciation, increased capital inflows and a current account surplus provided some leeway for monetary policy to aid economic recovery.
Monetary policy easing likely to continue: Void of specific forward guidance on future interest rate movements, the Bank reiterated its commitment to maintaining price stability and being proactive with data-driven policy responses. All of our panelists expect further cuts this year as inflation continues to cool, before more rate cuts next year. The Bank will reconvene on 24–25 November.