Nigeria: Nigerian oil output rises in June
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 69.85 per barrel in June, up 9.0% from May. On 30 June, the commodity traded at USD 67.65 per barrel, up 5.8% from 30 May. Israel and the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, raising both the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East plus the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.
Turning to production, Nigerian oil output increased to 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June, from May’s downwardly revised 1.53 mbpd. Accordingly, output remained above Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd for the third successive month.
Outlook: Oil output is forecast to increase in 2025 from 2024, reaching its highest level since 2020. Rising capacity at the Dangote refinery will boost crude demand in Nigeria, prompting an increase in production. Nonetheless, the country is expected to fall short of its OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd, hampered by a precarious security situation and an uncertain domestic regulatory environment. Renewed turmoil in the oil-producing Niger Delta is a key downside risk.