New Zealand Economic Sentiment November 2020

New Zealand

New Zealand: Business confidence steadies in November

November 5, 2020

The ANZ bank business outlook indicator remained virtually unchanged in November, according to a preliminary reading. As a consequence, a net 15.6% of firms reported that they expect general business conditions to worsen in the year ahead, from a net 15.7% in October. However, the headline reading remained entrenched below the net-0% threshold that separates pessimism from optimism among businesses.

November’s result reflected stronger export and employment intentions as well as a higher capacity utilization offsetting falling investment intentions and profit expectations.

Meanwhile, firms’ outlooks regarding their own activity—a metric which has a stronger correlation to GDP growth—inched down to a net 4.6% in November, from October’s net 4.7%.

Commenting on the release, Sharon Zollner, ANZ chief economist, stated:

“Now that the wage subsidy has wound up and the lost summer for tourism looms large, business resilience will be tested. But it’s fair to say the starting point looks much more positive than looked likely a few months ago.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project fixed investment to increase 6.5% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to increase 4.5% in 2022.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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New Zealand Economic Sentiment Chart

New Zealand Business Confidence November 20 20

Note: Percentage of respondents expecting improvement in general business conditions minus percentage expecting deterioration. An index number above 0 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The survey is not conducted in January.
Source: ANZ Bank Business Outlook.

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