New Zealand: Consumer confidence dips to three-year low in October
November 2, 2018
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence indicator slipped from 117.6 in September to 115.4 in October, landing below the historical average and marking the lowest reading in three years. Nevertheless, the index remained comfortably above the 100-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism among consumers.
October’s print reflected a marked decline in the future conditions index more than offsetting a mild increase in the current conditions index over the previous month. Households’ views over their one and five-year economic outlooks deteriorated compared to September, and they also turned less optimistic about the prospect of being financially better off in one year. Meanwhile, despite consumers’ assessment of their current financial situation weakening marginally in October, their willingness to purchase major household items strengthened, driving the slight improvement in the current conditions index compared to the previous month.
All told, the headline indicator showed that consumer confidence continues to decline, largely due to households’ increased wariness not only about the future state of the broader economy but over their personal finances as well.
New Zealand Private Consumption Forecast
FocusEconomics panelists expect private consumption to grow 2.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2020.
Author: Javier Colato, Economist