New Zealand Business Confidence July 2018

New Zealand

New Zealand: Business confidence dips to an over-decade low in July

July 31, 2018

The ANZ Bank Business Outlook indicator showed that a net 44.9 of surveyed firms were pessimistic about the year ahead in July, a higher proportion than June’s 39.0% and marking the lowest reading since May 2008. As a result, the indicator moved further below the net-0% threshold that separates optimism from pessimism among firms. Confidence declined across all surveyed industries in July, with the manufacturing and construction sectors recording the largest drops.

Similar to the dip the confidence reading, firms’ positive outlook regarding their own activity—a metric which has a stronger correlation to GDP growth—fell from plus 9.4 points to 3.8 points, the lowest level since May 2009. Firms’ intentions to invest and profit expectations experienced a marked decline. Moreover, a sizeable number of firms still foresee credit difficulties ahead.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to grow 4.2% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2019.


Author:, Economist

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New Zealand Business Confidence Chart


NewZealand Business Confidence July 2018 0

Note: Percentage of respondents expecting improvement in general business conditions minus percentage expecting deterioration. An index number above 0 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The survey is not conducted in January.
Source: ANZ Bank Business Outlook.


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