Mexico Trade December 2018

Mexico

Mexico: Trade surplus catches analysts off-guard in December

January 28, 2019

Merchandise trade recorded a USD 1.8 billion surplus in December, up considerably from the negligible balance registered in the same month a year earlier on plummeting gasoline imports. Moreover, the result was considerably stronger than the USD 2.4 billion deficit recorded in November.

Export growth on an annual basis climbed to 4.3% from 2.8% in November, helped along by a broad-based improvement in non-oil and gas exports—and especially stronger manufacturing gains. Imports, meanwhile, fell 0.8% on the heels of November’s 10.4% rise. Consumer-good imports were down sharply, while intermediate-good imports—typically, a bellwether for fixed-capital spending—lost momentum from a month earlier.

As such, the 12-month trailing trade deficit narrowed to USD 13.7 billion from USD 15.5 billion in November.

Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect exports to reach USD 474 billion in 2019, which would represent a 6.2% year-on-year expansion. Meanwhile, imports are expected to expand 5.4% and reach USD 484 billion. For 2020, the panel expects exports and imports to grow 5.5% and 4.8%, respectively.


Author:, Economist

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Mexico Trade12m December 2018

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)


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