Mexico: Banxico delivers fourth consecutive rate hike in November
November 11, 2021
On 11 November, the Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) opted to raise the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%. The move marked the fourth consecutive hike, but was not unanimous as one board member voted to keep rates constant.
The Bank’s decision was a further attempt to keep inflation under control and stop inflation expectations becoming de-anchored. Both headline and core inflation have remained well above the Bank’s 3.0% target in recent months. Additionally, market expectations for both headline and core price pressures for next year increased since the previous meeting, while long-term market inflation expectations were above the Bank’s target. Banxico also notably revised up its own inflation projections for the coming year compared to the forecasts it made in September.
In its communiqué, Banxico did not provide explicit guidance on future rate movements. However, it did seem more concerned about inflation than at the prior meeting, stating that it would “assess thoroughly the behavior of inflationary pressures” going forward. As such, further monetary tightening is highly likely ahead. Our panelists see a further rate increase before end-2021, and additional hikes in 2022.
As Cristobal Arias Ortega, director at Arimato, said:
“At this stage, our 2021 and 2022 forecasts for Banxico’s policy rate are 5.50% and 6.50%, respectively. This means one rate hike of 50bps during Banxico’s next policy committee meeting in December. And four rate increases of 25bps each over the next year, without ruling out seeing another 50bps hike instead next year. Our view is that the inflation outlook has worsened. While high energy and commodity prices are the main source of headline inflationary pressures, an upward trend is also observed in the core inflation component, with latest readings reaching a 12-year high.”
The next monetary policy decision will be announced on 16 December.
Author: Oliver Reynolds, Economist