Mexico Inflation May 2018


Mexico: Inflation ticks down further in May

June 7, 2018

Consumer prices fell 0.16% from a month earlier in May, marking only the second monthly decline in a year and moderating from the 0.34% dip recorded in April. May’s decline was driven by a sharp fall in non-core energy prices. Food prices, on the other hand, rose moderately from a month earlier. Core consumer prices—which exclude volatile categories such as fresh produce and energy—rose 0.26% from a month earlier, faster than April’s 0.15% uptick.

Inflation eased for the fifth consecutive month, falling from 4.6% in April to 4.5%—the lowest print since December 2016 but still slightly above analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, core inflation was stable from a month earlier at 3.7%.

Banxico expects inflation to continue moderating in the second half of the year—and end 2018 at 3.8%—before converging to the midpoint of its 3.0% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point target by mid-2019. Moreover, Banxico expects inflation to end 2019 at 3.2%. Panelists surveyed by FocusEconomics expect inflation to end 2018 at 4.0%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel sees year-end inflation at 3.6%.


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Mexico Inflation Chart

Mexico Inflation May 2018

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI).

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