Mexico city at goldenhour

Mexico GDP Q1 2019

Mexico: Uncertainty chips away at domestic demand and overall growth in Q1

Expenditure-based national accounts released by the Statistical Institute (INEGI) on 21 June confirmed tepid first-quarter growth. Output grew 1.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, down markedly from 1.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, owing to lackluster consumption gains and blunted export growth.

Household spending slowed to 1.1% year-on-year (Q4 2018: +1.4% year-on-year) amid higher unemployment and fuel shortages, as well as on a series of one-offs. Government spending fell 0.8% (Q4 2018: +0.3% yoy) in light of the so-called political business cycle; public-sector outlays tend to dry up whenever a new government takes the reins. Fixed investment, meanwhile, appeared unable to shake off Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s nascent presidency and Mexico’s uneasy trading relationship with the United States (Q1: -0.9% yoy; Q4 2018: -2.2% yoy).

Foreign trade, meanwhile, was hit by the downturn in manufacturing. Export growth almost halved to 2.0% year-on-year (Q4 2018: +3.9% yoy) on ebbing demand north of the Rio Grande. By the same token, import growth plunged (Q1: +1.7% yoy; Q4 2018: +5.6% yoy). Taken together, net exports contributed marginally to growth in the first quarter—contrasting the fourth quarter of last year.

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest