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Mexico GDP Q2 2025

Mexico: GDP growth accelerates in Q2

GDP reading: According to a preliminary estimate, GDP growth accelerated to 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the second quarter from 0.2% in the first quarter. The Q2 growth was almost twice as fast as markets had expected, highlighting the economy’s resilience despite the imposition of U.S. tariffs on some Mexican exports.

Manufacturing and services underpin growth: The services sector grew 0.7% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms in the second quarter, contrasting the first quarter’s 0.1% decrease. In addition, the industrial sector grew 0.8% in Q2 (Q1: +0.1% s.a. qoq). In contrast, the primary sector swung to contraction, falling 1.3% in Q2, contrasting the 7.8% expansion logged in the prior quarter.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:

“Looking ahead, we anticipate some support from international sources of Mexico’s growth, primarily in manufacturing exports still with some frontloading effects, and growth in the tourism sector. The outlook for domestically related sectors is mixed, however, with a moderation in local services and a contraction in investment.”

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