Mexico GDP Q3 2019

Mexico

Mexico: Economy contracts at a more moderate pace in Q3

October 30, 2019

The economy contracted again in the third quarter, according to a preliminary GDP estimate released by the Statistical Institute (INEGI) on 30 October. Economic activity fell 0.4% in year-on-year, unadjusted terms in Q3, less sharply than the 0.8% decline logged in the second quarter but landing below market expectations. Meanwhile, on a seasonally-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter basis, output rose 0.1% in Q3, marking the first quarterly expansion so far this year (Q2: 0.0% quarter-on-quarter s.a.).

The more moderate slump primarily reflected the improvement in the primary and secondary sectors of the economy. Annual growth in agricultural production picked up markedly to 5.4% in Q3 (Q2: +1.4% year-on-year), while industrial sector output declined a more modest 1.7% year-on-year (Q2: -3.0% yoy), with the construction and mining sectors continuing to drag on the overall sector. Less encouragingly, however, services-sector activity slipped 0.1% annually in Q3, the first fall in nearly a decade and weighing on the overall reading (Q2: 0.0% yoy).

The INEGI will release a second GDP estimate on 25 November.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see growth at 1.4% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 1.8% in 2021.


Author:, Economist

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Mexico GDP Q3 2019

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)


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