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Mexico Economic Activity July 2025

Mexico: Economic activity falls in July

Latest reading: Economic activity fell 0.9% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in July, following 0.1% growth in the previous month.

Relative to the prior month’s data, readings in July softened for the services sector (-0.4% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms vs +0.3% in June), the industrial sector (-1.2% vs -0.3% in June) and the primary sector (-3.0% vs 0.0% in June).

On a year-on-year basis, economic activity fell 1.1% in July, following a 1.3% rise in the previous month and a deeper fall than markets were expecting.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, Goldman Sachs’ Alberto Ramos said:

“Going forward, real activity is likely to face headwinds from domestic and external policy uncertainty, a negative fiscal impulse, and soft business confidence. On the positive side, household spending is likely to continue to benefit from still resilient credit flows and solid wage growth (including generous minimum wage increases). Public investment (public works) is expected to soften given the need for fiscal consolidation, and private investment to be impacted by both domestic and external uncertainty, in particular with regard to the US trade-policy (tariffs) and the outcome of the USMCA review.”

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