Mexico: Consumer confidence hits decade-high following AMLO's win
August 3, 2018
Consumer sentiment jumped in July on the heels of the 1 July general election, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by INEGI hitting a decade-high 101.7 points, up from a revised 88.6 points in June (previously reported: 88.0 points). July’s print overshot market expectations by a long shot. Until this month, sentiment had been stuck below the 100-point threshold for more than a decade.
July’s improvement was seen as a vote of confidence in the election results, which saw AMLO win in a landslide. All five of the index’s components contributed to the improvement; assessments of the future improved markedly, with views on the macroeconomic situation in a year’s time skyrocketing. Meanwhile, assessments of the current and future economic situations at the household level each climbed into positive territory, and consumers became more willing than a month earlier to make big-ticket purchases. Despite huge gains, consumers remained downbeat about the current macroeconomic situation.
Mexico Private Consumption Forecast
Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect private consumption to grow 2.7% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2019, the panel sees private consumption expanding 2.6%.
Author: Christopher Thomas, Economist